Top 10 IT predictions for 2011

Tuesday, December 7, 2010 |

    
For the IT industry, 2011 will be about the consolidation of disruptive technologies and customer segments into the 'new mainstream' platform for growth.
The 'mainstreaming' of these formerly emerging phenomena means that they can no longer be invested in, or managed as, 'sandbox efforts' around the edges of the market - they will increasingly be the market itself, says IDC in it's study on the technology predictions for 2011.




#1 Solid IT spending growth
Worldwide IT spending will be $1.6 trillion.
Growth of 5.7% in 2011, down from surprisingly strong 6.4% in 2010.
Hardware growth of 7.8% - driven by converged mobile devices, networking equipment, and PCs.
Rebound in software (5.3%) and services (3.4%).
Some downside risks
US unemployment and real estate risk, and
Western Europe sovereign debt crises, austerity programs

#2 Emerging markets lead growth
Emerging markets will account for 27% of global IT spending in 2011.
10.4% growth over 2010.
54% of all 2011 IT spending growthBRIC will dominate, accounting for 44% of emerging markets spending.
14.4% growth over 2010.
China will generate 54% of BRIC spending, poised to pass Japan as the number two IT market by 2013.

#3 Cloud adoption - Mainstreams
Public cloud services adoption will grow at over five times the rate of the IT industry.
2011 will be a big year for private cloud services adoption and deployment.
Two cloud - power positions
  • The platform-as-a-service (PaaS) battle will determine 'the next Microsoft'.
  • Battle for hybrid cloud management
Death of cloud computing by 2012.


#4 The new data center emerges
The integration of datacenter systems and "stacks" and the collision of suppliers will continue.
Cisco/EMC, Oracle hardware, HP softwareThe next generation of on-premise enterprise software designed, ground-up, for the cloud, will roll out Cloud service providers (SPs) and hosters will become more of a must-have segment.
12% of server and storage spending in 2011, over 20% by 2014.

#5 Mobility explosion accelerates
Mobile devices & users surge, poised to challenge PC, radically expand market.
Media tablets will soar, with iPad holding a big lead in spite of lots of company.
Mobile apps war - led by Apple and Google - continues as stakes get huge.
The "app store" phenomenon will spread up from smartphones and tablets to PC and next-gen enterprise solutions.
Emerging markets will begin to dramatically expand and transform the smartphone market.

# 6 Broadband works to keep up
The networked population will exceed 2 billion, creating opportunity and stress.
4G wireless broadband will see modest adoption, immodest marketing in 2011.
Ethernet exchanges will grow in importance.
Value of content delivery networks (CDNs) will soar in digital media supply chains.


#7 Social expands and consolidates
SMBs will "friend" social networks in a big way in 2011.
Major IPO and lots of consolidation in 2011, as market growth soars
Jive will have an IPO.
Major vendors -like Oracle, SAP, Microsoft, HP, Cisco, and IBM -will acquire social software vendors.
Continuing a 2010 trend, mid-sized social platform vendors will consolidate the small niche players to increase their footprint.
As much as 30% of the vendor marketplace will be acquired in 2011.

#8 Big data: Management & analytics
The "digital universe" will grow to 1.8ZB in 2011, up 47% from 2010, and rocketing toward over 7ZB by 2015.
Continuing buying spree to strengthen vendors' information management capabilities".
Compliant clouds" will become standard fare.
In a world of increasingly "big data," real-time, pervasive analytics offerings.




#9 Intelligent industries go mobile
Retail - Mobile and social commerce will loom large in the 2010 holiday shopping season.
Financial services - 2011 will be an important year for "tilling the soil" in mobile payments.
Energy - 2011 rollouts of plug-in electric vehicles will "drive" smart grid investments.
Health - In 2011, 14% of all adult Americans will use a mobile health application to manage health, wellness, and chronic conditions.

#10 Consumers: I want my Web TV
Nearly half of televisions 40in. or larger sold in the United States in 2011 will have networking built into them.
Battle among Web "media/entertainment clouds" will define the next decades of media.
Amazon, Google/YouTube, Hulu, Netflix, and (inevitably) Apple - have the chance to become your virtual cable networks.
In mobile advertising, the market will double, Google (60% share) will crush the competition, and acquisitions will abound.